A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
