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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd